Aluminium (LME)
Rishika Varma Konda · Commodities desk
LME aluminium $3,675/t (+50% YoY, 6–12mo, Medium). Supply-shock-driven rally: European and African smelter outages, Gulf disruption from the Iran conflict, constrained Chinese offset, and a Guinea bauxite export curb due June 2026. EU deficit 5.6Mt, global 2.2Mt. Directional view, no numeric price target. Research only — no Alpaca equity, so no auto-order.
Portfolio ManagerVincent Brandsma
Allocation cut to 2% per Black-Litterman, the floor. The report is a directional bullish call with no numeric price target, so the model has no view return to act on and defaults it to the floor. A numeric price target would let the model size it on conviction rather than defaulting.
Execution note. Implemented via DBB (Invesco DB Base Metals). Take-profit $27.51 applies the report's move to DBB at $25.57. DBB is a base-metals basket — aluminium, zinc, copper — not pure aluminium, so this is directional.